食品飲料行業(yè)2019年中期投資策略守望價(jià)值高回報(bào)，咬定龍頭不放松

1、食品飲料食品飲料2019年中期投資策略中期投資策略證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可（2009）1210號(hào)2目錄一、回顧與展望：堅(jiān)守價(jià)值高回報(bào)，行業(yè)龍頭迎來(lái)高質(zhì)量成長(zhǎng)階段一、回顧與展望：堅(jiān)守價(jià)值高回報(bào)，行業(yè)龍頭迎來(lái)高質(zhì)量成長(zhǎng)階段.................................................................................8（一）基本面：經(jīng)濟(jì)企穩(wěn)，消費(fèi)回暖

2、.............................................................................................................................8（二）市場(chǎng)回顧：白酒跑贏大盤(pán)，估值持續(xù)修復(fù)，白酒重倉(cāng)比例顯著提升.............................................................8

3、（三）展望全年：行業(yè)龍頭進(jìn)入高質(zhì)量發(fā)展階段，守望價(jià)值高回報(bào)，咬定龍頭不放松.......................................10二、白酒：名酒穩(wěn)健成長(zhǎng)，依舊結(jié)構(gòu)性繁榮二、白酒：名酒穩(wěn)健成長(zhǎng)，依舊結(jié)構(gòu)性繁榮........................................................................................................

4、...............11（一）短周期名酒穩(wěn)健成長(zhǎng)...........................................................................................................................................111、業(yè)績(jī)回顧：行業(yè)集中度提升，名酒龍頭成長(zhǎng)穩(wěn)健。..........................

5、...............................................................112、產(chǎn)業(yè)見(jiàn)聞：春節(jié)旺季及春糖會(huì)凸顯龍頭經(jīng)營(yíng)穩(wěn)健性.........................................................................................12（二）長(zhǎng)周期結(jié)構(gòu)性繁榮.............................

6、..................................................................................................................19（三）估值體系：外資戰(zhàn)略性配置，重構(gòu)龍頭估值體系................................................................................

7、...........21二、大眾品：咬定龍頭不放松，找尋成長(zhǎng)的巨人二、大眾品：咬定龍頭不放松，找尋成長(zhǎng)的巨人...............................................................................................................24（一）主線一：必選需求穩(wěn)健，龍頭份額繼續(xù)提升..............................

8、.....................................................................241、乳制品：競(jìng)爭(zhēng)有望趨緩，龍頭戰(zhàn)略分化.............................................................................................................242、肉制品：屠宰長(zhǎng)期整合趨勢(shì)不改，肉制

9、品經(jīng)營(yíng)思路積極變化.........................................................................273、調(diào)味品：集中度提升，盈利能力穩(wěn)步提升.........................................................................................................28（二）主線二：把握

10、細(xì)分行業(yè)成長(zhǎng)冠軍.......................................................................................................................291、餐飲連鎖化風(fēng)口之下，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈機(jī)會(huì)凸顯........................................................................

11、.....................................292、全國(guó)化布局筑寬壁壘，規(guī)模效應(yīng)優(yōu)勢(shì)逐步凸顯.................................................................................................31（三）主線三：尋找產(chǎn)品周期中的成長(zhǎng)大單品........................................

12、...................................................................36（四）主線四：全渠道融合下的增長(zhǎng)機(jī)遇...................................................................................................................38（五）主線五：啤酒格局改善漸行漸

13、近.......................................................................................................................43四、投資策略：守望價(jià)值高回報(bào)，咬定龍頭不放松四、投資策略：守望價(jià)值高回報(bào)，咬定龍頭不放松......................................................

14、.....................................................45五、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示五、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示.........................................................................................................................................................

15、..................4620589778361392019050511:45食品飲料食品飲料2019年中期投資策略中期投資策略證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可（2009）1210號(hào)4圖表33古井今世緣口子窖毛利率（%）..............................................................................................

16、............................18圖表34今世緣124N市場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)略...................................................................................................................................18圖表35順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)白酒收入及增速...........................

17、..........................................................................................................19圖表36順鑫外埠市場(chǎng)占比逐步提升（%）.............................................................................................

18、.........................19圖表37順鑫預(yù)收款季度變化（億元，%）......................................................................................................................19圖表38順鑫凈利率逐步提升（%）......................................

19、............................................................................................19圖表39人均可支配收入茅臺(tái)零售價(jià)..............................................................................................................

20、..................20圖表40高端白酒銷(xiāo)量占比中長(zhǎng)期提升空間大.................................................................................................................20圖表41老六大名酒收入占行業(yè)比重（%）..............................................

21、........................................................................20圖表42老六大名酒利潤(rùn)總額占行業(yè)比重（%）..............................................................................................................20圖表43酒業(yè)變革四維度..

22、...................................................................................................................................................21圖表442019年至今北上持續(xù)買(mǎi)入A股（億元）................................................

23、...........................................................21圖表45QFII獲批額度不斷增加........................................................................................................................................21圖表46食

24、品飲料龍頭北上資金持股變化（%）..............................................................................................................22圖表47北上資金板塊配置結(jié)構(gòu)（%）...........................................................................

25、...................................................22圖表48QFII資金板塊配置結(jié)構(gòu)（%）.............................................................................................................................22圖表49食品飲料及白酒板塊PETTM走勢(shì).

26、....................................................................................................................23圖表50一線白酒龍頭PETTM走勢(shì).....................................................................................

27、............................................23圖表51全球主要烈性酒公司PETTM走勢(shì).....................................................................................................................23圖表52全球主要烈性酒業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊伲?）.................

28、.........................................................................................................23圖表53必選消費(fèi)品需求穩(wěn)健，受經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)影響較小..........................................................................................

29、...........24圖表54增長(zhǎng)逐步由價(jià)升驅(qū)動(dòng)，調(diào)味品仍實(shí)現(xiàn)量?jī)r(jià)齊升.................................................................................................24圖表55乳制品零售額規(guī)模及增速.....................................................................

30、................................................................24圖表56調(diào)味品零售額規(guī)模及增速.....................................................................................................................................24圖表57

31、乳制品下線城市銷(xiāo)售額銷(xiāo)售量增速逐步加快....................................................................................................25圖表58伊利蒙牛產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)繼續(xù)升級(jí)...................................................................................

32、..............................................25圖表59伊利持續(xù)產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新.................................................................................................................................................25圖表60伊利常溫及奶粉市場(chǎng)

33、份額持續(xù)上升.....................................................................................................................26圖表61蒙牛低溫市場(chǎng)份額保持領(lǐng)先...............................................................................

34、..................................................26圖表62原奶價(jià)格溫和上漲背景下，龍頭企業(yè)通過(guò)與奶源戰(zhàn)略合作，優(yōu)化產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)保障盈利.................................26圖表63豬價(jià)和生豬價(jià)格走勢(shì)（元千克）...........................................................................

35、.............................................27圖表64行業(yè)定點(diǎn)生豬屠宰量增速.....................................................................................................................................27圖表65雙匯單季屠宰量及增速（萬(wàn)頭，%）...

36、...............................................................................................................27圖表66雙匯屠宰頭均利潤(rùn)及利潤(rùn)率...........................................................................................