上市公司內(nèi)在價(jià)值分析外文翻譯

1、<p><b>　　中文2340字</b></p><p><b>　　畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</b></p><p>　　2014年11月01日</p><p>　所在學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院</p><p>　專(zhuān) 業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)管理</p><p>　班 級(jí)</p&g

2、t;<p>　學(xué) 號(hào)</p><p>　姓 名</p><p>　指導(dǎo)教師</p><p><b>　　譯文：</b></p><p>　　《上市公司內(nèi)在價(jià)值分析》</p><p>　　一、 關(guān)于內(nèi)在價(jià)值 </p><p>　　隨著中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展，

3、中國(guó)股市將逐步走向成熟，價(jià)值投資將在未來(lái)中國(guó)股市中占主導(dǎo)地位，證券市場(chǎng)的價(jià)值投資就是當(dāng)證券的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格低于它的內(nèi)在價(jià)值時(shí)買(mǎi)入，并長(zhǎng)期持有或當(dāng)證券的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格高于它的內(nèi)在價(jià)值一定程度時(shí)賣(mài)出。因此，對(duì)于中國(guó)股市的價(jià)值投資而言首要問(wèn)題是確定上市公司股票的內(nèi)在價(jià)值。同時(shí)為了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資，企業(yè)并購(gòu)和資產(chǎn)重組等資本運(yùn)作的需要，迫切需要適合中國(guó)公司的可操作性強(qiáng)的價(jià)值評(píng)估體系。本杰明.格雷厄姆在《證券分析》這本書(shū)中是這樣描寫(xiě)內(nèi)在價(jià)值這個(gè)概念的總結(jié)性地概括： &

4、lt;/p><p>　　1、內(nèi)在價(jià)值是無(wú)法確定具體數(shù)值的，難以把握的概念。 </p><p>　　2、內(nèi)在價(jià)值可根據(jù)公司歷史收益數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)推算，但只可做參考。因?yàn)閺臍v史收益數(shù)據(jù)是無(wú)法估算出不確定的未來(lái)收益的。 </p><p>　　3、雖然無(wú)法得出內(nèi)在價(jià)值的精確數(shù)字，但內(nèi)在價(jià)值可以用一個(gè)近似值范圍來(lái)表達(dá)并用它判斷股價(jià)被高估或低估。 </p><p>

5、　　4 、市場(chǎng)價(jià)格經(jīng)常偏離證券的實(shí)際價(jià)值。 </p><p>　　5、當(dāng)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格偏離證券的實(shí)際價(jià)值時(shí)，市場(chǎng)中會(huì)出現(xiàn)自我糾正的趨勢(shì)。但對(duì)某些證券價(jià)值的高估和低估經(jīng)常會(huì)持續(xù)極長(zhǎng)的一段時(shí)間。</p><p>　　國(guó)內(nèi)外評(píng)估公司內(nèi)在價(jià)值的主要方法有：</p><p>　　(一)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值基礎(chǔ)法 </p><p>　　它是通過(guò)對(duì)公司資產(chǎn)進(jìn)行估價(jià)的方式來(lái)評(píng)

6、估公司的價(jià)值。目前國(guó)際上通行的資產(chǎn)估價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)主要有 賬面價(jià)值 重置成本法和清算價(jià)值等。 </p><p><b>　　1、賬面價(jià)值法 </b></p><p>　　賬面價(jià)值法是一種基于會(huì)計(jì)理論的方法 根據(jù)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表得出凈資產(chǎn)并進(jìn)行適當(dāng)調(diào)整 但結(jié)果可能不代表盈利能力，特點(diǎn)是簡(jiǎn)便但不準(zhǔn)確。</p><p><b>　　2 、重置成本法 &l

7、t;/b></p><p>　　重置成本法是指以目前的價(jià)格水平重新建造一個(gè)與被評(píng)估資產(chǎn)完全相同或類(lèi)似的資產(chǎn)的成本 特點(diǎn)是立足于現(xiàn)在時(shí)點(diǎn)的資產(chǎn)價(jià)值 未考慮未來(lái)資產(chǎn)的收益情況。 </p><p><b>　　3 、清算價(jià)值法 </b></p><p>　　清算價(jià)值法是基于公司的總資產(chǎn)在市場(chǎng)變現(xiàn)后減去總負(fù)債的價(jià)值，特點(diǎn)是只考慮資產(chǎn)價(jià)值而沒(méi)有考慮

8、機(jī)構(gòu)組織的無(wú)形資產(chǎn)和商譽(yù)（goodwill）適合于破產(chǎn)企業(yè)。</p><p>　　(二)現(xiàn)金流量貼現(xiàn)法 </p><p>　　現(xiàn)金流量貼現(xiàn)法的基石是現(xiàn)值規(guī)律。任何資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值等于其預(yù)期未來(lái)全部現(xiàn)金流的現(xiàn)值總和?，F(xiàn)金流量因所估價(jià)資產(chǎn)的不同而各異。對(duì)股票而言，現(xiàn)金流是紅利。對(duì)債券而言，現(xiàn)金流是利息和本金。對(duì)于一個(gè)實(shí)際項(xiàng)目而言，現(xiàn)金流是稅后凈現(xiàn)金流。貼現(xiàn)率將取決于所預(yù)測(cè)的現(xiàn)金流的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度，資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

9、越高，貼現(xiàn)率就越高。反之，資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越低，貼現(xiàn)率就越低。根據(jù)現(xiàn)金流的來(lái)源不同，用于評(píng)估公司內(nèi)在價(jià)值的主要有以下三種：</p><p><b>　　1、 股利貼現(xiàn)法 </b></p><p>　　股利貼現(xiàn)法也就是將公司未來(lái)預(yù)期股利貼現(xiàn)公司目前的價(jià)值。股利法從理論上能準(zhǔn)確地計(jì)算出資產(chǎn)的真實(shí)價(jià)值，但在實(shí)際中很難操作。因?yàn)榇蟛糠制髽I(yè)派發(fā)股利是不定期和不定量的，部分企業(yè)在其成長(zhǎng)期

10、根就不發(fā)股利，所以很難預(yù)測(cè)其股利派發(fā)情況并計(jì)算其價(jià)值。 </p><p>　　2、 公司自由現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)法 </p><p>　　公司自由現(xiàn)金流是指在支付了經(jīng)營(yíng)費(fèi)用和所得稅后，向包括債權(quán)人在內(nèi)的所有公司權(quán)利要求者支付現(xiàn)金之前的全部現(xiàn)金流。 </p><p>　　3 、股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)法 </p><p>　　股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流是指公司在履行了償

11、還債務(wù)、彌補(bǔ)資本性支出、增加營(yíng)運(yùn)資本等各種財(cái)務(wù)上的義務(wù)后所剩的那部分現(xiàn)金流。 </p><p>　　從理論上講對(duì)，有收益的資產(chǎn)，現(xiàn)金流量貼現(xiàn)法最能準(zhǔn)確地計(jì)算出資產(chǎn)的真實(shí)價(jià)值，現(xiàn)金流量貼現(xiàn)法被絕大多數(shù)專(zhuān)業(yè)文獻(xiàn)認(rèn)為是最科學(xué)，最成熟的公司評(píng)估方法。</p><p>　　企業(yè)的價(jià)值等于該企業(yè)以適當(dāng)?shù)馁N現(xiàn)率所貼現(xiàn)的預(yù)期現(xiàn)金流量現(xiàn)值，所以這種方法要對(duì)公司資產(chǎn)未來(lái)的現(xiàn)金流量進(jìn)行估計(jì)，并要選擇合理的貼現(xiàn)

12、率，特點(diǎn)是難度較大，操作比較復(fù)雜。</p><p><b>　?。ㄈ?）市盈率法 </b></p><p>　　如果能估計(jì)出目標(biāo)公司未來(lái)可持續(xù)收益，而且股票市場(chǎng)存在一個(gè)平均的行業(yè)市盈率，用公司的當(dāng)年稅后利潤(rùn)乘以行業(yè)平均市盈率就可比較簡(jiǎn)單地計(jì)算出公司大致的價(jià)值，市盈率法操作性強(qiáng)，但其隱含的前提是當(dāng)?shù)氐墓善笔袌?chǎng)是一個(gè)強(qiáng)式效率市場(chǎng)，即公司的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值等于內(nèi)在價(jià)值，否則其計(jì)算結(jié)

13、果與公司的實(shí)際內(nèi)在價(jià)值將可能產(chǎn)生極大的誤差。</p><p><b>　?。ㄋ?）其他方法 </b></p><p>　　有可比交易法、可比公司法、分散加總估價(jià)法、目標(biāo)公司股價(jià)歷史分析法、M&A乘數(shù)法、杠桿收購(gòu)法、杠桿資本調(diào)整法和總收入乘數(shù)法等。通常是投資銀行在企業(yè)兼并，收購(gòu)和重組中使用的方法。 </p><p>　　（五 ）經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值

14、（EVA）貼現(xiàn)法 </p><p>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值最基本的形式就是公司的剩余收入。也就是說(shuō)，如果投資人得到的投資回報(bào)等于投資人投資的期望收益，公司的剩余收入等于零，該項(xiàng)投資的價(jià)值就等于該項(xiàng)投資的投資額。如果公司產(chǎn)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值，將公司未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值折現(xiàn)后再加上公司的投資總額就應(yīng)該等于公司的內(nèi)在價(jià)值。</p><p>　　二、內(nèi)在價(jià)值傳統(tǒng)分析原理評(píng)價(jià)</p><p>

15、　　內(nèi)在價(jià)值傳統(tǒng)分析原理，融入各種財(cái)務(wù)和管理等理論，已形成較完備的原理體系，并已經(jīng)在實(shí)務(wù)操作中深入人心，取得了較好的效果。而巴菲特則將內(nèi)在價(jià)值傳統(tǒng)分析原理運(yùn)用和深化到了極致，在現(xiàn)實(shí)投資世界里取得了巨大成功。但內(nèi)在價(jià)值傳統(tǒng)分析原理還存在一些缺陷，需要進(jìn)一步改進(jìn)。</p><p>　　從方法層面來(lái)看，內(nèi)在價(jià)值傳統(tǒng)分析原理的主要缺陷就是沒(méi)有形成一個(gè)統(tǒng)一分析框架：</p><p>　　(1)定性分

16、析較系統(tǒng)，但缺乏一個(gè)統(tǒng)一、簡(jiǎn)單而嚴(yán)密的因果分析框架。</p><p>　　(2)定量分析只分析財(cái)務(wù)后果，沒(méi)有追溯至導(dǎo)致該結(jié)果的原因。</p><p>　　(3)定性與定量分析之間沒(méi)有建立應(yīng)有的因果聯(lián)系，沒(méi)有統(tǒng)一的框架將定性分析和定量分析融于一體。</p><p>　　(4)定性分析、定量分析和價(jià)值估算之間缺乏緊密的因果邏輯聯(lián)系。</p><p&g

17、t;　　這篇文章對(duì)于上市公司內(nèi)在價(jià)值的分析還只是初步的，在未來(lái)我們可以考慮對(duì)更多不同行業(yè)的公司進(jìn)行案例研究，以完善內(nèi)在價(jià)值因果分析原理和程序。因?yàn)椴煌袠I(yè)的公司存在不同的行業(yè)特點(diǎn)和公司特點(diǎn)，應(yīng)用研究可以起到較好的反饋效果?，F(xiàn)有的程序只是～個(gè)初步的方案，它需要大量的案例研究來(lái)加以修正。例如：我們?cè)趧?dòng)因的選取上，只選擇了宏觀、行業(yè)及企業(yè)動(dòng)因的分類(lèi)法。在后續(xù)的研究中，我們可以針對(duì)分析的需要，選取不同的動(dòng)因分類(lèi)，構(gòu)建不同的內(nèi)在價(jià)值因果分析表。本

18、文在分析案例時(shí)，主要根據(jù)企業(yè)實(shí)際采用了利潤(rùn)指標(biāo)，在后續(xù)的研究中，可以針對(duì)不同行業(yè)選擇不同的特殊現(xiàn)金流指標(biāo)，這有賴于分析者對(duì)于該行業(yè)的深入理解。</p><p><b>　　原文：</b></p><p>　　The intrinsic value of the listed companies is analyzed</p><p>　　Fir

19、st, about the intrinsic value. Along with the development of China's capital market, China's stock market will be gradually maturing, the value investment will account for the dominant position in China's sto

20、ck market in the future, the value of the securities market is when the market price of the securities investment below its intrinsic value when buying, and hold for a long time or when the stock market price is higher t

21、han its intrinsic value to a certain extent when selling. Therefore, </p><p>　　1, the intrinsic value is unable to determine the specific numerical, difficult to grasp the concept. </p><p>　　2,

22、intrinsic value according to the company history data to calculate returns, but can only be used for your reference. Because earnings figures from history is unable to estimate the uncertainty of future earnings. </p&

23、gt;<p>　　3, although can't get an accurate number of the intrinsic value, but the intrinsic value can express and use it in a range of approximation to determine share price is overvalued or undervalued. </

24、p><p>　　4, often deviate from the stock market price of real value. </p><p>　　5, when the real value of the market price deviating from the securities market will be the trend of self correcting. B

25、ut for some overvalued or undervalued securities value often lasts for very long period of time.</p><p>　　Second, to assess the intrinsic value of the company's main methods at home and abroad are:</p

26、><p>　　(a) asset value based method </p><p>　　It is the way through the study of the valuation of the company's assets to evaluate the value of the company. Current international book value of

27、assets valuation standards are on the replacement cost method and the liquidation value, etc. </p><p>　　1, book value method </p><p>　　Based on the theory of the accounting book value method is

28、a kind of method According to the balance sheet net assets and make appropriate adjustments But the result may not represent the profitability, the characteristic is easy but not accurate. </p><p>　　2, the r

29、eplacement cost method</p><p>　　Replacement cost method refers to the current price level to build a evaluation, and to be identical or similar assets cost characteristic is now based on the point value of t

30、he assets Did not think of the future asset returns. </p><p>　　3, the liquidation value </p><p>　　Liquidation value method is based on the company's total assets minus the value of total lia

31、bilities, after market to liquidate characteristic is only considered assets value without considering the organization's intangible assets and goodwill (goodwill) is suitable for the bankrupt enterprise.</p>

32、<p>　　(2) cash flow (DCF) method </p><p>　　The cornerstone of discounted cash flow method is present value rule. The value of any asset is equal to the total present value of all cash flows in the futur

33、e. Cash flow for the assets valuation varies. For stock, cash flow is dividends. For bonds, cash flow is the interest and principal. For a practical project, cash flow is the after-tax net cash flows. The discount rate w

34、ill depend on the degree of risk of the cash flow forecast, the higher risk assets, the higher the discount rate. On the </p><p>　　1, the dividend discount method </p><p>　　Dividend discount met

35、hod and the company's future is expected dividend discount the value of the company now. Dividend method theoretically can accurately calculate the real value of the assets, but in practice it is difficult to operate

36、. Because most corporate dividend distribution is irregular and not quantitative, some enterprises in its root is not hair dividends for a long time, so it is difficult to predict its dividend payments and calculate its

37、value. </p><p>　　2, corporate free cash flow discount method </p><p>　　Free cash flow is refers to the company after pay for business expenses and income tax, to all companies, including credito

38、rs rights requirement to pay cash before all of the cash flow. </p><p>　　3, equity free cash flow discount method </p><p>　　Free cash flow of equity is to point to in the performance of the comp

39、any to repay the debt, compensate for capital expenditure, increase working capital and other financial obligations after left that part of the cash flow. </p><p>　　Theoretically to have earnings assets, cas

40、h flow (DCF) method can accurately calculate the most the real value of the assets, cash flow (DCF) method is considered to be the most scientific, most professional literature method to estimate the most mature company.

41、</p><p>　　Equal to the value of the enterprise to present value of expected future cash flows discounted by the appropriate discount rate, so this kind of method to estimate the future cash flow of the asset

42、 to the company, and to choose the reasonable discount rate, features is difficult, and complicated operation.</p><p>　　(3) p/e ratio method </p><p>　　If we can estimate the target company's

43、 future sustainable yield, and there is a stock market average p/e ratio of industry, with the company's after-tax profit multiplied by the industry average p/e ratio can be relatively simple to calculate the value o

44、f company is roughly, p/e ratio method and feasible, but the underlying premise is that the local stock market is a strong form efficiency market, the company's market value is equal to the intrinsic value, otherwise

45、 the calculation results with</p><p>　　(4) other methods </p><p>　　Disperse aggregation have comparable transactions, comparable companies, valuation method, the target company's stock price

46、 history analysis, M&A multiplier, leveraged buyouts, leveraged capital adjustment method and income multiplier method, etc. Usually investment Banks in enterprise merger, acquisition and reorganization method. </

47、p><p>　　(5) economic value added (EVA) discount </p><p>　　Economic value added of the most basic form is surplus income of the company. In other words, if investors get the expected return on inves

48、tment is equal to the investors investment benefit, the company's residual income is equal to zero, the investment is equal to the value of the investment. If the company to produce economic value added, will be the

49、future of the company after discounting Eva plus the company's total investment should be equal to the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>　　Three, the intrinsic value of traditional analysis principl

50、e of evaluation </p><p>　　Intrinsic value traditional analysis principle, blend in a variety of financial and management theory, has formed a relatively complete theory system, and has been deeply rooted in

51、the hearts of the people in the practice, good results have been achieved. Mr Buffett has applied intrinsic value traditional analysis principle and deepen to perfection, investment in the real world has been a huge succ

52、ess. But the inherent value of traditional analysis principle also has some defects, need to be fur</p><p>　　From the method level, intrinsic value is the main defect of traditional analysis principle did no

53、t form a unified analysis framework: </p><p>　　(1) the qualitative analysis of the system, but the lack of a unified, simple and strict causal analysis framework. </p><p>　　(2) quantitative anal

54、ysis only financial consequences, not back to the cause of the results. </p><p>　　(3) there is no established between qualitative and quantitative analysis of causal relationship, no unified framework will c

55、ombine qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. </p><p>　　(4) the qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, and lack of causal logic closely relationship between value estimate. </p><p&g

56、t;　　This article for the analysis of the intrinsic value of listed companies is only a preliminary, in the future we can consider to case studies of companies in different industries, to improve the intrinsic value causa

57、l analysis principle and procedures. Because the industry characteristics of different companies in different industries, and the characteristics of the company, applied research can have a good feedback. Existing progra